[Editor’s note: Here’s Ted Sundquist’s scouting report for one of the more compelling games of the week. If the Fins win, they match their total for 2007. If the Jets lose, they could end up going 0-3 to start the year, with games against New England and San Diego coming up.]
Too bad there aren’t any story lines for two AFC East teams returning in ‘08 with a combined five wins between them. Are you kidding me? As if Brett Favre wearing “JET” green wasn’t enough to talk about; throw in the reclamation project of Bill Parcells in Miami, Chad Pennington opening against the team that drafted him in the first round in 2000 and the impending threat of hurricanes or tropical storms that may strike southern Florida over the weekend. That’s not even mentioning the blasted heat and humidity that tends to wilt Miami opponents in early September. This game represents a rebirth of one team, and a shot — if not a last gasp — at playoff contention for another.
Emotion will play as big a factor in this game as any across the League this weekend. Who could have envisioned back in March that Brett Favre would eventually “unretire” and leave the Packers in the situation they found themselves this summer? But much to G.M. Mike Tannebaum and head coach Eric Mangini’s delight, New York thinks they’ve added just the catalyst to jump start a sagging offense from 2007. Favre brings not only a champion’s leadership qualities to his on-field play, but he may even have a little left in the tank (6th in QB rating ’07) to move a unit that ranked 26th in total offense last season. In limited action he was quite accurate, if not efficient, completing 14 of 18 for 144 yards and 1 touchdown. Critics point to the fact that Favre spent 16 seasons with a club whose offensive philosophy was built around the “West Coast” theory of precision timing routes. Year after year he could rely on the talent of Sharpe, Brooks, Freeman, Walker, or Driver to come up with the “big catch” on the other end of one of his “big plays”. Questions now abound as to how he will respond to the “read and react” patterns of
His ability to do so will be KEY #1 to a fast start for the Jets.
New York’s defense will try to slow down the prototypical run game of a Bill Parcells-constructed team. New head coach Tony Sparano is an offensive line coach by trade and would love nothing more than to establish a reliable ground attack early. Little wonder that Dolphins G.M. Jeff Ireland signed the athletic OG Justin Smiley through free agency and then used the first pick of the draft to select talented OT Jake Long, effectively solidifying the left side. Samson Satele is a young holdover from the last regime at center, while massive veteran OT Vernon Carey holds down the right tackle position. This rebuilt front, that includes rookies Shawn Murphy and Donald Thomas at OG, are all listed at or over 310 lbs, with the exception of Satele at 300 lbs. To counter this push up front, the Jets bring their own retooled line bolstered by the offseason acquisition of “huge” NT Kris Jenkins. Jenkins is the perfect fit for the 3-4 scheme. Well documented weight problems in Carolina aside, Jenkins is stout at the point of attack and very athletic for a man his size. He will strongly test the interior front of the
Despite being released by his first opponent (which was as much a political move to add the superstar Favre as it was linked to performance), Chad Pennington brings a bit of stability to a position that has floundered over the past few seasons in Miami. Pennington showed workman-like efficiency in August, passing for 72% with no turnovers or sacks to his credit. Though the future appears to be second-round pick Chad Henne’s, Pennington will be able to “hold down the fort” while the rest of the offense pulls together and Henne continues to develop. Pennington is smart, tough, extremely accurate, a leader and has three seasons of playoff experience; exactly what you need to tutor a young QB in the wings and to lead in a rebuilding effort. So quickly respected was Pennington, that the team elected him captain this week (as the Jets did with Favre). His career Achilles heel has been injuries to most body parts except his Achilles heel. Given the situation, look for the Dolphins to keep things fairly balanced, if not somewhat conservative.
The Dolphins will work to Smiley and Long’s side in establishing the run game, which I KEY #3, and hope to wear out the Jets in the heat and humidity of Dolphin Stadium. One thing RB Ricky Williams is, a workhorse. Monitored properly and given the correct load, the Dolphins are 16-3 when he rushes for more than 100 yards. And don’t forget that Ronnie Brown added four 100-yard games of his own in ’07 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. This should allow for the offense to cut down on some of its preseason mistakes (penalties and fumbles), create some early confidence and will surely be a “must” if the aforementioned weather dictates the play.
KEY #4 is linked to KEY #1, controlling Brett Favre. The Dolphins will play a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 looks at the Jets to take advantage of personnel and to keep the opponent off balance. There certainly won’t be much thrown at Favre that he hasn’t seen, but whether he can read it quickly enough and find the open man is pending.
If the storms turn nasty, the play of both punters could be KEY #5 to this game. Any screw up in getting the ball out of your own end of the field under poor conditions can be the determining factor in winning or losing a close game. Both Jets punter Ben Graham and Dolphin punter Brandon Fields have decent gross averages, but Graham has pinned opponents inside the 20 forty-nine times in two seasons. A long field, with fumble problems over their last four games, is not what
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peckx063, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 12:35 pm
This is a great addition to the website. I would like to see Ted predict what will actually happen in his “Keys”. It’s nice to know what the most important matchups are in a game, but tell me who is going to win said matchups.
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Rating: 4.65 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
FinfanJim, a Passionate Fan, on 9/5/08 at 12:35 pm
Sounds about right to me. Just think of how suicidal Jets fans can get if Pennington and the 1-15 Fins beat them this weekend…
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Rating: 4.5 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
Wrathchild, a Division Champ, on 9/5/08 at 1:16 pm
Would it be possible to include a quick summation of the analysis at the beginning or end of the article?
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Pea Tear Griffin, a Hall of Famer, on 9/5/08 at 1:27 pm
Calling it right now, Pennington has an Achilles injury this season.
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Gerald Keefer, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 1:43 pm
Another great article. Thanks for posting these. Eagerly looking forward to next weeks articles!
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 1 rating(s)
CTifer, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 1:45 pm
FinfanJim - you should know this as well as anyone in here with a name like that, but these are NOT the 1-15 Dolphins any more. They were out-coached week-in and week-out and they weren’t very physical, something the addition of Joey Porter was supposed to solve LAST year. It took adding a bunch of bodies that make Porter look tiny to turn this team around, but at least their are going to turn it around.
Key #4 is most important. If Miami can limit the passing game, they’ll do pretty well because their D is going to shut down the running game, IMO.
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mmerkin, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 1:50 pm
agree with previous comment regarding teddy’s prediction; also, maybe some key rookies to watch on his breakdowns? i mean, we spend all this damn time on the annual NFL draft, and come regular season, no outlet (cable tv, non-cable tv, websites, print) ever track the hype around these rookies except for the ROY candidates.
in particular, in this game, i’m looking at Golston, Keller for the Jets, and Long, Thomas, Langford, Merling for the Phins
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Stinkfist, a Passionate Fan, on 9/5/08 at 2:31 pm
Just
End
The
Season
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garyofferdahl, a Division Champ, on 9/5/08 at 2:47 pm
This is a season opening must have game for the Jets, they have 2 enormous games coming up and they just gotta have this one. Let the pressure cooker begin!
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 1 rating(s)
texasPHINSfan, a Division Champ, on 9/5/08 at 3:42 pm
looking forward to the game. i think Ted hits a lot of points dead-on. awesome contributions ted, thanks!
i agree with the other poster who said he’d like to see ted’s predictions of who will win the different “Key” battles.
GO MIAMI!
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jandrews86, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 4:34 pm
This is a great addition to an already great website. I agree with the other guy that it would be nice if he said who he thought would win the keys to the game.
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Johnny the K, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 5:07 pm
Wow, what a great feature… the best online analysis of game strategy I’ve seen. I registered on the website just to send this e-mail!
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 1 rating(s)
jwestbay, a Cheerleader, on 9/5/08 at 6:38 pm
Yeah I can’t agree more - Ted obviously knows what hes talking about. Forget espn experts (I’ll never forget the time Mark Schlereth posted that OJ McDuffie would need to have a big game for the phins to win - TWO YEARS after McDuffie had retired). Great insight and right on with the analysis of where the Dolphins are at - I actually can not recall someone actually looking at preseason stats and used it as an indicator like this, but I think hes correct. I would like to see a prediction of who will win… based on what he said I think he gives the phins a solid chance (tho most people would still wuss out and pick the perceived favorite anyways). Thanks and I look forward to more!
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J-E-T-S, a Passionate Fan, on 9/6/08 at 12:22 am
I heard Pennington is going to be bringing is rocket of an arm up to 20mph for this game….the Jets better watch out.
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Babe Parelli, a Water Boy, on 9/6/08 at 12:38 am
Guys with rocket arms are a dime a dozen - and most are working in insurance. Acuracy and reading defences is much more important.
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TM18and1, a Passionate Fan, on 9/6/08 at 7:11 am
“Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles are a solid WR tandem and the Dolphins will get plenty of multiple-receiver sets, but the two have not been traditionally big-play producers.”
Really? JC and LC are not big play producers! This is a very astute observation from someone that forgot to draft a QB for Atlanta. Now he has employment here with Florio. Ha! Yes this a worhty opinion.
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shoelaces, a Cheerleader, on 9/6/08 at 7:44 am
I’m looking for a fired up miami D to take
out the ‘old man’
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